Archive for June, 2008

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Verizon (NYSE: VZ) is making a fairly concerted effort to get Vodafone (NYSE: VOD) out of its equity position in Verizon Wireless. The question is, why would Vodafone get out? Verizon Wireless makes a lot of money.

According to the FT, the head of Verizon, Ivan Seidenberg said, “Would I like to have 100 per cent of the earnings given we’re doing 100 per cent of the work? Yeah, I would.”

Verizon Wireless does not pay dividends to Vodafone, so it does not get much of a cash benefit from its piece of the pie, but the FT points out that the British company’s stake is worth about $60 billion.

Reflecting on the debate, it would probably be in the ideal interests of Vodafone shareholders to sell out to Verizon. Their benefits of ownership are limited. Vodafone could use the cash for expansion in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East.

Perhaps the greatest reason for Vodafone to make a graceful exit is the US market itself. Growth of wireless subscribers is slowing as the market reaches a point of saturation. Competition is tough, especially with AT&T (NYSE: T) having about the same number of subscribers as Verizon Wireless. A price war could take down margins at both companies.

Vodafone’s stake might never be worth more than it is now.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

 

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According to BusinessWeek, a senior General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) recently tossed an idea to the troubled automaker: Think about a merger with rival Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F).

The idea, which the magazine says was shot down at a GM meeting, underscores the problems facing the two American auto icons as consumers pinched by high gas prices dump their SUVs and pick-up trucks in favor of smaller automobiles. The swiftness of that transition caught just about each auto manufacturer off guard, even though Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) was better prepared with its lineup of smaller, more fuel-efficient automobiles.

A possible deal would be a huge distraction into both companies while doubling the amount of problems a combined auto colossus would face. A long-term combination may have indeed proved quite fruitful, but are both companies seriously ready to have their empires combined? Maybe in 2013, okay?

Financially, if the deal makes sense for the long term, look for this rumor to surface again in the near future. Combining the incredibly high overhead and capability to weather fickle customer preferences in vehicles would never be a bad thing. right now, the timing is bad — but it could be better in reach of five years. Is the U.S. ready for a single, publicly-held American auto manufacturer? I’m not sure, and there would be mountains of convincing to do if a merger ever comes up again. My bet is it will.

 

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U.S. futures were blended to lower early Friday morning, a day after stock markets sold off, ending at their lowest level in nearly two years. Still, with oil prices reaching another record in Asia, it’s questionable whether stocks could indeed stage a recovery.

On Thursday, U.S. stocks sank to lows not seen in almost two years after Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) downgraded investment banks including Citigroup (NYSE: C) and General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) to Sell and as Wall Street was also worried about the outlook for tech stocks as both RIM (NASDAQ: RIMM) and Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) reported quarterly results Wednesday, giving a tepid outlook. Topping it all were oil prices reaching $140 a barrel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 358 points, or 3.03%, the S&P 500 lost 38 points, or 2.94%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 79 points, or 3.33%.

Usually, a day after such a selloff, buyers tend to come in, this morning we also woke up to news that oil prices climbed to a record above $141 a barrel in Asian trading, which might dampen the mood on Wall Street again. Light, sweet crude for August delivery rose as high as $141.71 a barrel before pulling back to $141.10. The previous trading record for a front-month contract was $139.89, set on June 16.

Economic releases today include Might personal income and spending at 8:30 a.m. EDT. With it, the core PCE inflation indicator, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge is also due out.

In corporate news, the board of Anheuser-Busch Cos. (NYSE: BUD) has unanimously rejected InBev NV’s $46.35 billion takeover bid, calling it “financially inadequate.”

In financials, American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG) plans to absorb as much as $5 billion of any losses on sales of the investments, up from a previous commitment of $500 million. Meanwhile, Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) stated Thursday it will cut about 7,500 jobs after it closes its acquisition of Countrywide Financial Corp. (NYSE: CFC).

And finally, Palm (NASDAQ: PALM) shares are dropping yet another 4.4% in premarket trading after the smartphone maker posted a fourth-quarter loss after a profit a year earlierdespite strong sales of its new, cheaper Centro phone.

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The board of Anheuser-Busch Cos. (NYSE: BUD) has unanimously rejected InBev NV’s $46.35 billion takeover bid, calling it “financially inadequate.” So now, will we have a hostile takeover fight?

So far, we had InBev putting in the offer and Anheuser-Busch taking its sweet time to reply while trying to thwart the offer by talking to Groupo Modelo. If Anheuser can manage to buy the remaining 50% of Modelo, it would be too big for InBev to swallow. Thursday, though, Anheuser finally replied. Unanimously, no less. I wonder if somewhere around that boardroom full of directors, one at least represented the interests of BUD’s second largest shareholder, Warren Buffett’s Berkwhire Hathway (NYSE: BRK.A).

In response, InBev stated it might ask Anheuser shareholders to unseat the whole board. InBev filed suit “seeking a judgment to confirm that shareholders acting by written consent could remove all of Anheuser’s directors without cause.” I’d say they might even have cause. The $65 per share offer represented a 35% premium at the time. What’s so “financially inadequate” about that?

Well, as Anheuser Chairman Patrick Stokes stated, the offer undervalues the Bud Light and Budweiser brands, which he calls iconic. Whatever he calls them, they are the top two selling beer brands in the world. He also said InBev undervalues BUD’s growth prospects. Well, if Anheuser could restructure on its own, it should have done so by now and not wait until it was up against the wall with its shareholders. The plans it has and wants to put in place will take a while to bear fruits no doubt.

As InBev has stated, it’d rather take over BUD under friendly terms (a bit of an oxymoron there, but that’s the business world). Otherwise, it could either take the tender offer directly to shareholders or get into a fight similar to that Icahn has on his hands with Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO)’s board, which might not be pretty. Replacing a whole board for a new slate can, and will, get unsightly. Or it can do both.

If InBev decides to play nice after all, it might have to raise its bid. Maybe they should all chill and drink a Molson (NYSE: TAP). Things will look superior after a few…

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Windows 7 can’t come fast enough! The New York Times is reporting that Intel has decided against upgrading its 80,000 employees to Windows Vista. An Intel spokesperson told the Times that Vista is being tested and deployed in certain departments, but not company-wide.

Although the enterprise push to upgrade to Vista has fallen short of expectations, this is a particularly brutal blow. Intel is one of Microsoft’s oldest and most important partners; both companies became industry leaders in huge part because of that partnership.

Even though the Times’ Intel source made efforts to say that the decision wasn’t about “dissing Microsoft,” we doubt that’ll make Steve Ballmer feel any better. Can you envision what that conversation is going to sound like?

Despite the lack of widespread corporate adoption, the install base for Windows Vista is 140 million worldwide — hardly peanuts. Still, with huge corporations declining to upgrade their systems, Microsoft has had to extend support for Windows XP through 2014.

Thanks Mike!

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According to a number of studies, Wall Street’s initial reaction to a proposed buyout is a good indication of whether a deal will pan out or not. So when Pier 1 Imports (NYSE: PIR) recently made an $88 million bid for Cost Plus World Markets (NASDAQ: CPWM), and the response from investors was immediately negative (the stock price fell 20%), it was probably telling.

I guess Pier 1 was listening. On Wednesday, the company said it was revoking its bid.

Funny enough, the CEO of Pier 1, Alex W. Smith, originally called the deal “compelling” and that it “would create significant value for the stakeholders of both companies.”

Oops.

But now, according to Smith, it looks like the deal will be too pricey. After all, it appears that Cost Plus is going to fight.

Yet, why not try to fight back? Pier 1 does have some leverage. Plus, there are certainly cost synergies (basically, the industry really needs consolidation).

Then again, when it comes to Wall Street, sometimes it is easier to just give in.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.

 

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More states have filed charges against Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) for aggressive marketing and giving loans which were highly risky. Washington and California have joined Illinois in the actions.

Up until now, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), which is buying Countrywide, has been sticking to its story that it will close on its buy of the mortgages company. The media has written a million times that the massive money center bank might pull out of the deal. That actually became a bit more likely with the new states’ actions.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Kurt Eggert, a law professor at the School of Law at Chapman University stated, “Countrywide could be required to give back its profit on all those loans and conceivably give back houses on which it has foreclosed.” Since that number could be well into the billions of dollars, the potential damages are rising fast.

Countrywide could spend tens of millions of dollars on legal fees and countless hours in court over the next several years. That has become much clearer in the last few days.

BAC would be better off to let CFC go out of business and just buy its assets. Maybe the bank never intended to shut the deal. Maybe that was its plan all along.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

 

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