Archive for May 4th, 2008

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There are probably some hurdles to Deutsche Telekom (NYSE: DT), the German phone giant, buying Sprint (NYSE: S), but the deal does make sense for a number of reasons. Reuters writes that Der Spiegel, one of Germany’s most prominent publications, reported that “Deutsche Telekom is looking at a possible purchase of U.S. wireless company Sprint Nextel.”

DT has a very significant problem in the U.S., and it is one that the company cannot overcome on its own. The firm’s U.S. wireless venture, T-Mobile, runs a distant fourth among carriers in the U.S. The two leaders, AT&T (NYSE: T) and Verizon Wireless seem to have the top spots cemented and are adding new customers every quarter. Sprint is in third place with about 50 million subscribers to over 60 million served by each of the two leaders.

Sprint has deep troubles of its own. It has run into subscriber retention issues since the NexTel merger. The company’s financial position is weak. Its share price is under $8. Less than two years ago, it was nearly $23. Sprint’s plan to build a nationwide 4G network using WiMax is all but dead. The company simply does not have the financing to complete it.

T-Mobile has almost 28 million subscribers. Combined with Sprint, it would take the lead in U.S. wireless customers with about 78 million. Integrating the wireless platforms of the two companies would be extremely difficult. But, the substitute is being the fourth horse in a three-horse race.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 letter.

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Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) shares traded at $29.70 after hours Friday as it appeared that a buyout deal from Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) was likely. Now that Microsoft has walked away after offering $33, where does the Yahoo! stock price go?

Probably to about $22. Here are the reasons why:

1. Yahoo! traded at $19 the week before the offer.

2. Yahoo!’s earnings for Q1 were only modest. So were its forecasts. No one on Wall Street believes the company’s aggressive three-year projections. This actually puts some downward pressure on the stock.

3. Microsoft might come back. Their new offer, probably several weeks off, if they make one, will almost certainly be below its initial $31 price point because Yahoo!’s shares will have fallen. A new MSFT offer will probably be in the $25 to $27 dollar range. This should give the stock some support.

4. Yahoo! could outsource some of its search functions to Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and potentially save hundreds of million of dollars in personnel. Google does a superior job of making money from search ads, so a transaction with the search company could also improve revenue. This should help keep Yahoo!’s share price from collapsing. There is a chance the the federal government would view a deal between the two largest search companies as anti-competitive.

5. There is still a chance the Yahoo! could do a transaction with News Corp (NYSE: NWS) for MySpace or Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) for AOL. It is tough to handicap what this would do to the Yahoo! shares.

Look for the Yahoo stock to settle at $22 in the next week.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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