Archive for March 18th, 2008

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Stock futures are higher this morning as investors await the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates this day and some data on housing and inflation. As of 7:50 Dow futures were up 130 and NASDAQ futures were up 18.

The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to announce its decision at 2:15 EST. Investors are anticipating a cut of as much as a full percentage point — to 2%.

Housing starts and building permits, due out at 8:30, have likely dipped in February compared to January.

The Producer Price Index, inflation at the wholesale level, is expected to increase, but after the unexpected flat CPI from Friday, we might be in for a surprise.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Lehman Bros. (NYSE: LEH) are also scheduled to report results today and investors will be anxiously looking to gauge the condition of the financial sector generally following the collapse of Bear Stearns. Lehman’s shares fell almost 20% Monday amid fears it will be the next casualty of turmoil in the credit markets.

Meanwhile, the Bush administration has been working on two new initiatives aimed at creating more funding for mortgages by resting constraints on Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM), Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) and the Federal Housing Administration, according to the Wall Street Journal. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight is reportedly close to reducing an excess-capital stipulation for Fannie and Freddie, thereby giving them more latitude to buy and securitize loans. There are also moves to grant more people to qualify for mortgages insured by the FHA.

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Whether management and the board of Delta (NYSE:DAL) and Northwest (NYSE:NWA) think a merger of the two airlines is a good idea still does not seem to matter. The pilots at the two companies don’t want a deal.

Airlines may be one of the few industires where unions count. And, according to The Wall Street Journal “People familiar with the matter stated the disagreement over seniority — which dictates which pilots fly which models of planes, how much money they earn and possibilities for career advancement — doesn’t necessarily mean the two airlines can’t go ahead with their merger plan.”

That would probably not be a risk worth taking. The value of the merger is still open to huge questions. The combination wouldn’t save on fuel costs. Labor unions could strike to keep their jobs, disrupting the new company’s flight schedules. Merging customer service operations is apt to cause glitches which will upset consumers, and, perhaps, send them to other airlines.

With margins running very low because of the high cost of jet fuel, Delta and Northwest cannot afford a pilot walk-out. They’ve the companies under their thumbs.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Now that private equity is almost dead due to lack of capital, most of the disputes between firms which tried to take public companies private are over. But, as a reminder that the boom years left some wreckage, Alliance Data (NYSE:ADS) has notified Blackstone (NYSE:BX) that it is in breach of closing a buy-out deal.

According to The Wall Street Journal “ADS said Blackstone is attempting to “run out the clock” on the deal, which has a drop-dead date of April 17.” The original buy-out offer was at $81.75. Problems with the deal have taken ADS shares down to $44.

ADS has a credit-card bank and Blackstone argues that the Office of the Comptroller of Currency would put tough financial restrictions on the buy-out. The two companies have gone back and forth on whether the regulations involved are meaningful.

Blackstone may not like the government’s terms for it to shut the deal. But, it is just as likely that the private equity firm simply wants out because the credit environment is so bad. Blackstone’s own shares have lost nearly two-thirds of their value since the company’s own IPO.

A suit for damages is the last thing that Blackstone needs. It is apt to take the company’s shares down even further. But, Blackstone should not have started what it couldn’t finish. It should have seen the issues facing the deal when it did its due diligence. That is why private equity people are supposed to be smarter than everyone else.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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