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Filed under: Business

We like studies here at Download Squad. There’s a certain mystique about them. Such cold, hard data. So official-sounding, yet apt to error, likely to being misused as a weapon rather than as a learning tool.

Here’s a new study to chew on. According to this study, a meager 6% of people on the web are contributing 50% of the clicks to display advertisements. Yes, you read that right.

This 6% are a very special bunch. In the study, they are described as “Internet users between the ages of 25-44 and households with an income under $40,000, who are relatively more apt to visit auctions, gambling, and career services sites.”

These so-called heavy clickers are turning the on the internet advertising world upside down. A successful on the internet advertising campaign was previously measured by the amount of clicks; according to this data, however, clicks can no longer be used as the best measure. The study also found that ad-clicking was no guarantee of brand awareness or brand loyalty.

So what does this mean for the on the web advertisers? Here’s a list of potential reactions:

• Overreact: A study like this often causes a knee-jerk reaction. Could a new pay-per-click scheme arise from the ashes? What would something like that look like?
• Stay the course: This has a high chance of being followed, simply because moving advertisers to action is like steering a humongous barge. You turn the wheel, but it might be a long time before the ship starts to turn.
• Discount the study: Here’s what we’d say: “studies of this magnitude are likely to error, human or otherwise, and no study is without its bias. Therefore, we choose to ignore the study and its results absolutely.”

Whatever the reaction, the study is worth a read by the use of catch phrases and new nicknames alone. Where else can you find such monikers as “Natural Born Clickers,” or sayings like “the click is dead?”

[via ReadWriteWeb]

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Filed under: Deals, Industry, Alcoa Inc (AA), Options, Technical Analysis, Rio Tinto plc ADS (RTP), Aluminum Corp of China ADS (ACH)

Alcoa, Inc. (NYSE: AA) shares are rising today after a memo was disclosed which revealed that AA and Aluminum Corp. of China (NYSE: ACH) formed a special purpose car, “with the intent to acquire up to 14.9%” of Rio Tinto’s (NYSE: RTP) London-listed stock. The two had bought a 12% stake in Rio Tinto in January. If you think that the company won’t fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on AA.

After hitting a one-year high of $48.77 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $26.69 in January. AA opened this morning at $36.01. So far this day the stock has hit a low of $35.71 and a high of $36.42. As of 10:25, AA is trading at $36.05, up 54 cents (1.5%). The chart for AA looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) purchase rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an April bull-put credit spread below the $27.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the buy and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn’t do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we’ll make a 5.3% return in just two months as long as AA is above $27.50 at April expiration. Alcoa would have to fall by more than 23% before we would start to lose money.

AA hasn’t been below $27.50 by more than a few cents in the past year and has shown support around $34 recently. This trade could be risky if the US economy continues to worsen, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find around $28, where the stock bottomed out in January.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in AA, ACH or RTP.

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Filed under: Deals, Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO)

An interesting piece in today’s Wall Street Journal looks [subscription required] at Yahoo!’s (NASDAQ: YHOO) history of very bad acquisitions: Geocities, Broadcast.com, Inktomi, and Overture.

And then there’s this beauty: Yahoo! could have acquired Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) for just $3 billion back in 2001. Oops.

So investors have good reason to question Yahoo!’s insistence that Microsoft’s (NASDAQ: MSFT) offer is too low: What does Yahoo! know about acquisitions in the first place? And if they’re such experts on what companies are worth, why have they made so many big mistakes?

But perhaps Microsoft should take a look at the Journal piece too. Yahoo! essentially threw away billions of dollars on internet companies that it thought had competitive advantages but didn’t. Is Microsoft doing the same thing with its bid for Yahoo!? The reaction of traders to the original offer which sent Microsoft shares plunging indicates considerable skepticism about how well the combined entity would do.

This is starting to look like a case of a reluctant bride insisting on a bigger diamond while the groom’s parents tell him he’s too good for her anyway.

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Filed under: Deals, Liz Claiborne (LIZ)

Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) has concurred to sell its Ellen Tracy brand to a group of investors including Radius Partners LLC, William Sweedler of Windsong Brands LLC, Barry Sternlicht and Marvin Traub in cash deal that could reach $42 million — $27.3 million in cash and an earn-out of up to $15.

Liz Claiborne CEO William McComb said that “Ellen Tracy is an iconic brand, and we are confident that the new owners will invest in this business and give it the care and attention it deserves. We’re also thrilled that the substantial majority of Ellen Tracy employees will be retained as part of the deal.”

Perhaps Liz’s management should have given the decision to acquire the company in the first place more attention. In 2002, the company paid $180 million for Ellen Tracy.

The company’s failed effort to diversify its brands aside, there may be reason for optimism now that Liz Claiborne has made the decision to sell non-core brands and focus on the flagship. The signing of design legend Isaac Mizrahi could lead to a major turnaround of the company over the next few years, and investors willing to go against the grain may want to take a look in light of today’s pullback.

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Filed under: Deals, Industry, Citigroup Inc. (C), Economic data, Politics

New York governor Eliot Spitzer might be a lawyer by training, but he must harbor secret aspirations of becoming a financier. He’ll tell Congress today that the problems at bond insurance companies could become “financial tsunami” if they’re not fixed.

Spitzer has a point. As Reuters points out, “if insurers are downgraded by ratings agencies, investors that can only hold top-rated bonds may have to sell billions of dollars of securities, lifting borrowing costs for cities and consumers alike.” Banks might also have to write-down the value of any of these bonds that they hold on their balance sheets.

The debate now is whether the private sector should handle this on its own with banks including Citigroup (NYSE: C) providing financing to insurance firms such as Ambac (NYSE: ABK). The banks already have credit problems that could make those investments difficult.

If Spitzer truly wants to avoid what be feels will be a catastrophe he needs to state that New York Say will provide the bond insurers some financial guarantees and capital. Then the banks are prone to come in.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Filed under: Before the bell, International markets, Earnings reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Deals, Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO), Market matters, Comcast Cl’A’ (CMCSA), News Corp’B’ (NWS), Economic data, Federal Reserve

Stock futures were higher this morning, indicating U.S. stocks could continue yesterday’s momentum with another up day. Investors await to hear Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony and assessment of the economy later today. An hour before the opening bell, weekly labor market data will be released. After Wednesday’s strong retail report, this data would be viewed in light of consumer strength.

On Wednesday, U.S. stocks surged following a surprising rise in retail sales in January. This third straight day of gains finished with the Dow industrials adding 178 points, or 1.45%, the S&P 500 rising 18 points, or 1.36%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rallying 53 points, or 2.32%.

At 8:30 a.m. EST, the Labor Department will report the weekly unemployment claims figures. While the trends have been implying an increase in overall claims in the market, pointing to a less healthy employment market and unemployment levels, the strong retail data reported yesterday could advocate a higher comfort level with consumers about spending.
Also at that time, December trade balance will be released.

In the first hour of trading, Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson are slated to testify before the Senate Banking Committee.

Overseas, stocks rallied around the world. Following news that Japan’s economy grew faster than forecast, Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 4.27%, its biggest advance in nearly six years.

As earnings season is winding down, corporate news has been a little more sparse these days.

Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) reported a 54% increase in fourth-quarter profit to $602 million, or 20 cents per share, on solid revenue gains as customers spent more for cable Television. Analysts were anticipating profit of 17 cents per share. Comcast also stated it will begin paying a 6.25-cent quarterly dividend starting at the end of April and begin a share purchase back program.

After two days of the rumor buzzing around the blogosphere, it reached mainstream media Wednesday. Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) may be exploring an alliance with News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) to rescue it from Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT)’s takeover. Microsoft’s original bid valued Yahoo! at $44.6 billion, or $31 per share. Yahoo is believed to want at least $40 per share, or about $56 billion.

Baidu.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) reported a 79% fourth-quarter profit rise to 219.8 million yuan ($30.5 million), or 6.32 yuan (87 U.S. cents) per share on strong revenue from on the web marketing. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expected a profit of 72 cents per share on $77.1 million in revenue. RBC upgraded BIDU from Sector Perform to Outperform, raising its target price from $361 to $400. BIDU shares are up over 9% in premarket trading.

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Filed under: Business, Fun, Internet, Video, Social Software

Admit it: all your life you’ve coasted through because of your overwhelming good looks. But how is that going to help you in a job search when they want you to send in a paper resume with no pic whatsoever?

Enter VideoJobShop, a site where employers and job seekers can post videos online. For employers, this is a chance to advertise the benefits of being an employee of their company. For job seekers, this is your opportunity to display your beautiful mug to prospective employers, in real web 2.0 style.

VideoJobShop isn’t only a place to post video resumes (though of course you can do that if you wish). Maybe you looking for a dancing job, and have a few customized moves to show off. Well, here’s your chance. Shoot and upload your video, and watch the requests come flooding in.

We checked out a lot of the videos from prospective employers (which seems to make up the majority of the videos on the site). They ranged wildly in quality and production value, from someone talking in front of an on the internet cam to highly polished commercials.

If you’re in the market for a job or an employee, VideoJobShop provides an interesting means to those ends.

[via Mashable]

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It’s a pretty stunning move: Officials with the National Association of Home Builders on Feb. 12 decided that the group’s political action committee will no longer make contributions to candidates for U.S. Congress.

The reason? Association officials say that Congress hasn’t done enough in the last six months to stabilize the struggling housing market. You can read a statement from the home builders association here.

I’ve to admit, when I read this I was surprised. Organizations like the National Association of Home Builders have active political action committees, ones that spread tons of money around to politicians.

Then I began thinking: What if all special-interest groups like the National Association of Home Builders stopped making donations to legislators? How would that change our political system?

Maybe I’m naive, but I think I’d like a world without lobbyists and political action committees.

Tags: Congress, national-association-of-home-builders, political action committee

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