Filed under: Deals, Internet, Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO), Marketing and advertising

Lot’s of ink has been spilled on these pages about Microsoft’s (NASDAQ: MSFT) bid for Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) and what this might mean for Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and for the entire search industry. See Gary Sattler’s article on his views of how this might play out.

Tech guru, Tim O’Reilly takes a different tack on sizing up the news. On his blog, O’Reilly examines what this merger activity would mean for the whole e-mail industry, not search. “And for Microsoft, it could be a fatal mistake to take the battle to Google on its own ground. That’s the very mistake that companies like Netscape made in competing with Microsoft,” states O’Reilly.

Instead, posits O’Reilly, the combined Yahoo! and Microsoft should focus on their dominance in the e-mail industry. Yahoo Mail is still an industry leader on the internet and Microsoft has huge assets in the corporate realm with Outlook and Exchange. Says O’Reilly, “Now think about all the possibilities that are starting to be explored in the area of e-mail data as a source of information about users, and a locus for building new services for those users.”

This could get very interesting.

Zack Miller is the Managing Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund. Author owns a long-term stock position in Google.

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I’ve written before about how the National Association of Realtors isn’t necessarily to be trusted to give an accurate picture of the nation’s housing slump. This isn’t a surprise: The association exists to serve real estate agents. Its main goal is to make sure that agents sell more homes.

It makes sense, then, that the association would try to make even the worst news more palatable to the homebuying public.

Here’s what I mean. Check out this story on Realtor.org, the National Association of Realtor’s site designed specifically for real estate agents. You’ll notice that the headline mentions the unavoidable truth that housing sales declined in 2007 across the country. But it also prominently mentions that 2007 saw the fifth-most home sales in history.

That second fact is undeniably true. But the real important news is that the sales of existing homes fell 12.8 percent from 2006 to 2007.

That’s the real news for people trying to sell now. The fifth-highest year for sales? That doesn’t mean much when 2007 was so much worse than 2006 and 2005.

Tags: 2007 housing sales, bad year for real estate, National-Association-of-Realtors

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Filed under: Deals, Rumors, Management, Competitive strategy, Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO)

I often visualize large business by utilizing my own metaphor of navel warfare. I may be the only guy on the planet to do this, but I don’t think so. The exercise helps me in assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the companies I’m considering. It also helps me in putting intra-corporate affairs into perspective.

In my view, Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) has been like a swift and smooth-running state-of-the-art aircraft carrier. It’s well outfitted for its task, able to strike at a moment’s notice. It has a well-seasoned and knowledgeable crew. Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) has been similar to an aging destroyer group that has been at a loss for an effective admiral. Would you care to guess what I call Google in this scenario? Most of you probably already know. Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is like a battle ready nuclear submarine, running deep, cold, and nearly silent, with the ability to effectively engage in battle from a very long distance away.

My point in bringing up this metaphor is easy. I believe that a union between Microsoft and Yahoo! is a timely and appropriate thing. At this point in the game, they really do need each other. They have strengths that are diverse yet compatible. Personally I couldn’t have thought of a better move for Microsoft to make at this time. I believe that’s why Microsoft came out with such a blockbuster offer for Yahoo!. This isn’t the kind of thing you want to announce only to let it get bandied about before anything really happens. Strike at dawn in full force and don’t let up until you have what you came for.

How does Google fit into the Microsoft-Yahoo! buyout scenario? Honestly folks, it really doesn’t. I’d bet my next paycheck that the reaction at Google to Microsoft’s offer for Yahoo! was expressed with excitement similar to when the mail carrier arrives. Google plots its own course, pretty much irrespective of what the “competition” is doing. That’s why it’s so successful. That’s how Google does things.

Be ready for Google to take another unexpected turn, stepping into something you never would have thought it might do. I still say it’s getting ready to enter into government contracts for information handling services. There also are whispers swirling around regarding Google and the provision of original World wide web content. I wouldn’t yet call them rumors; it’s just something I think I heard.

I’ll sum things up with one more reference to my navel battle metaphor: Never look for Google to launch counter-measures in reaction to a perceived attack. It has been my observation that, without question, Google always goes straight to launching its own torpedoes.

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